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The OpenAI Drama: What Is AGI And Why Should You Care?

Peter Parker

September 27, 2024

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OpenAI outlines plan for AGI 5 steps to reach superintelligence

Hundreds more employees were hired to aggressively grow the company’s offerings. In February, OpenAI released a paid version of ChatGPT; in March, it quickly followed with an API tool, or application programming interface, that would help businesses integrate ChatGPT into their products. A few employees expressed discomfort about rushing out this new conversational model. The company was already stretched thin by preparation for GPT-4 and ill-equipped to handle a chatbot that could change the risk landscape. Just months before, OpenAI had brought online a new traffic-monitoring tool to track basic user behaviors.

In a recent Boston Consulting Group study, researchers found that people using ChatGPT at work can actually perform worse on certain tasks if they take the chatbot’s outputs at face value and don’t screen them for errors. During this stage, people rate the machine’s response, flagging output that is incorrect, unhelpful or even downright nonsensical. Using the feedback, the machine learns to predict whether humans will find its responses useful. OpenAI says this training makes the output of its model safer, more relevant and less likely to “hallucinate” facts. And researchers have said it is what aligns ChatGPT’s responses better with human expectations. In the fall of 2022, before the launch of ChatGPT, all hands were on deck at OpenAI to prepare for the release of its most powerful large language model to date, GPT-4.

Sure, GPT-4 can pass a bunch of standardized tests, but is it really “smarter” than humans if it can’t tell when the third letter in a word is “k”? While AI testing helps researchers gauge improvement, an ability to pass the bar exam does not mean an algorithm is now sentient. OpenAI’s definition of AGI also excludes the need for algorithms to interact with the physical world. One attempt at distinguishing the abilities of humans and computers came from Apple cofounder Steve Wozniak, who wondered when a computer would be able to visit a random person’s home and brew a pot of coffee. Instead of being limited to a narrow task, like calculating math equations, when would it be able to interact with the physical world to complete more varied assignments? Wozniak’s hot drink test is one perspective in the kaleidoscopic discussion over the concept of AGI and emergent behaviors.

But they have no consistent sense of self and can change their claimed beliefs or experiences in an instant. OpenAI also uses feedback from humans to guide a model toward producing answers that people judge as more coherent and correct, which may make the model provide answers deemed more satisfying regardless of how accurate they are. Bubeck’s paper, written with 14 others, including Microsoft’s chief scientific officer, was met with pushback from AI researchers and experts on social media. Use of the term AGI, a vague descriptor sometimes used to allude to the idea of super-intelligent or godlike machines, irked some researchers, who saw it as a symptom of the current hype. Sébastien Bubeck, a machine learning researcher at Microsoft, woke up one night last September thinking about artificial intelligence—and unicorns.

Sam Altman’s long-term dream is to achieve superintelligence

The use of synthetic data models like Strawberry in the development of GPT-5 demonstrates OpenAI’s commitment to creating robust and reliable AI systems that can be trusted to perform well in a variety of contexts. Computing power from research teams was redirected to handle the flow of traffic. As traffic continued to surge, OpenAI’s servers crashed repeatedly; the traffic-monitoring tool also repeatedly failed. Even when the tool was online, employees struggled with its limited functionality to gain a detailed understanding of user behaviors.

As earlier mentioned, there’s a likelihood that ChatGPT will ship with video capabilities coupled with enhanced image analysis capabilities. Meanwhile, Anthropic is expected to launch Claude Opus 3.5 in the coming months — this is the big brother to the impressive Claude 3.5 Sonnet and we’re still waiting on Google’s Gemini Ultra 1.5. Large natively multimodal models like GPT-4o, Gemini Pro 1.5 or Claude Sonnet 3.5 are at the top end of this level and are the first of the ‘frontier’ grade AIs. They are capable of complex, multi-threaded conversations, have memory and can do some limited reasoning. The issue is that they don’t tell you they’re guessing — they may simply present information as fact. When a chatbot invents information that it presents to a user as factual, it’s called a “hallucination.”

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Dario Amodei, co-founder and CEO of Anthropic, is even more bullish, claiming last August that “human-level” AI could arrive in the next two to three years. For his part, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman argues that AGI could be achieved within the next half-decade. It should be noted that spinoff tools like Bing Chat are being based on the latest models, with Bing Chat secretly launching with GPT-4 before that model was even announced. We could see a similar thing happen with GPT-5 when we eventually get there, but we’ll have to wait and see how things roll out.

Two anonymous sources familiar with the company have revealed that some enterprise customers have recently received demos of GPT-5 and related enhancements to ChatGPT. Some experts argue that achieving AGI meaning will require a deep understanding of the complex interactions between cognition, perception, and action, as well as the ability to integrate multiple sources of knowledge and experience. Therefore, some AI experts have proposed alternative tests for AGI, such as setting an objective for the AI system and letting it figure out how to achieve it by itself. For example, Yohei Nakajima of Venture Capital firm Untapped gave an AI system the goal of starting and growing a business and instructed it that its first task was to figure out what its first task should be. The AI system then searched the internet for relevant information and learned how to create a business plan, a marketing strategy, and more. AGI is often considered the holy grail of AI research, as it would enable AI systems to interact with humans in natural and meaningful ways, as well as solve complex problems that require creativity and common sense.

• There’s been an increase in the number of reports citing that the chatbot has seemingly gotten dumber, which has negatively impacted its user base.
• The authors also suggest that these systems demonstrate an ability to reason, plan, learn from experience, and transfer concepts from one modality to another, such as from text to imagery.
• “I have very mixed feelings when these companies are now talking about sentient AI and expressing concern,” says Suresh Venkatasubramanian, a professor at Brown University and coauthor of the Blueprint for an AI Bill of Rights.
• The CEO also hinted at other unreleased capabilities of the model, such as the ability to launch AI agents being developed by OpenAI to perform tasks automatically.
• Yet his latest idea of restricting the reach of accounts that have not paid for a Twitter Blue membership has not gone down well, and his time in charge has been beset by divisive moves that have had limited success, to put it mildly.

This will likely be huge for ChatGPT, owing to the positive reception of image and audio capabilities received when shipping the AI-powered app. Level 3 is when the AI models begin to develop the ability to create content or perform actions without human input, or at least at the general direction of humans. Sam Altman, OpenAI CEO has previously hinted that GPT-5 might be an agent-based AI system.

Bubeck had recently gotten early access to GPT-4, a powerful text generation algorithm from OpenAI and an upgrade to the machine learning model at the heart of the wildly popular chatbot ChatGPT. Bubeck was part of a team working to integrate the new AI system into Microsoft’s Bing search engine. But he and his colleagues kept marveling at how different GPT-4 seemed from anything they’d seen before. We’ve been expecting robots with human-level reasoning capabilities since the mid-1960s.

Even when the chatbot got every answer correct on its first attempt, it often apologized and listed multiple incorrect answers to follow-up questions. A chatbot drafts answers token by token to predict the next word in a response, but humans open their mouths to express more fully formed ideas. Josh Tenenbaum, a contributor to the January paper and a professor at MIT who studies human cognition and how to explore it using machines, says GPT-4 is remarkable but quite different from human intelligence in a number of ways. For instance, it lacks the kind of motivation that is crucial to the human mind. And he says humans do not simply follow their programming but invent new goals for themselves based on their wants and needs.

He questions the labeling of algorithms as “machine intelligence” and describes the notion of consciousness, without bringing machine learning into the equation, as a hotly debated topic. While OpenAI has promoted GPT-4 by touting its performance on bar and med school exams, scientists who study aspects of human intelligence say its remarkable capabilities differ from our own in crucial ways. The models’ tendency to make things up is well known, but the divergence goes deeper. And with millions of people using the technology every day and companies betting their future on it, this is a mystery of huge importance. OpenAI’s charter placed principle ahead of profit, shareholders, and any individual. The company was founded in part by the very contingent that Sutskever now represents—those fearful of AI’s potential, with beliefs at times seemingly rooted in the realm of science fiction—and that also makes up a portion of OpenAI’s current board.

But a chatbot’s fluency doesn’t prove that it reasons or achieves understanding in a manner similar to humans. “The extent to which those additional factors are happening is a major point of study and inquiry,” she says. Even with all the attention on generative AI in 2023, the full potential of these algorithms is hard to determine as companies train with more data and researchers look for emergent capabilities.

The CEO also hinted at other unreleased capabilities of the model, such as the ability to launch AI agents being developed by OpenAI to perform tasks automatically. I have been told that gpt5 is scheduled to complete training this december and that openai expects it to achieve agi. This kind of self-directed learning and problem-solving is one of the hallmarks of AGI, as it shows that the AI system can adapt to new situations and use its own initiative.

People can have meetings in real time with all levels of experience using AGI technology. ChatGPT and other chatbots driven by artificial intelligence can speak in fluent, grammatically sound sentences that may even have a natural rhythm to them. When you type your query into ChatGPT, it translates everything into numbers using what it learned during training. Then it does the same series of calculations from above to predict the next word in its response. GPT-5 is expected to enhance the multimodal capabilities introduced in GPT-4. This means the new model will be even better at processing different types of data, such as audio and images, in addition to text.

At the positive end of the spectrum, it could massively increase the productivity of various AI-enabled processes, speeding things up for humans and eliminating monotonous drudgery and tedious work. DDR6 RAM is the next-generation of memory in high-end desktop PCs with promises of incredible performance over even the best RAM modules you can get right now. But it’s still very early in its development, and there isn’t much in the way of confirmed information. Indeed, the JEDEC Solid State Technology Association hasn’t even ratified a standard for it yet.

But for all of the examples cited in Bubeck’s paper, there are many that show GPT-4 getting things blatantly wrong—often on the very tasks Microsoft’s team used to tout its success. However, changing the items and the request can result in bizarre failures that suggest GPT-4’s grasp of physics is not complete or consistent. Ringer also points out that while it may be tempting to borrow ideas from systems developed to measure human intelligence, many have proven unreliable and even rooted in racism. OpenAI launched GPT-4 in March 2023 as an upgrade to its most major predecessor, GPT-3, which emerged in 2020 (with GPT-3.5 arriving in late 2022).

According to Bloomberg’s unnamed sources, OpenAI has 5 steps to reach AGI and we’re only just moving towards step two — the creation of “reasoners”. These are models capable of performing problem-solving tasks as well as a human with a PhD and no access to a textbook. One AI data trainer who works at Invisible Technologies, a company contracted to train ChatGPT, previously told Insider they are tasked with identifying factual inaccuracies; spelling and grammar errors; and harassment when testing the chatbot’s responses.

Instead, we think that society and AGI developers need to work together to find out how to do it right. We can picture a future in which everyone has access to assistance with virtually any cognitive work thanks to AGI, which would be a tremendous boost to human intellect and innovation. Despite the challenges and uncertainties surrounding AGI meaning, many researchers and organizations are actively pursuing this goal, driven by the potential for significant scientific, economic, and societal benefits.

Back in May, Altman told a Stanford University lecture that “GPT-4 is the dumbest model any of you will ever have to use”, even going so far as to call the flagship LLM “mildly embarrassing at best”. However, it’s important to have elaborate measures and guardrails in place to ensure that the technology doesn’t spiral out of control or fall into the wrong hands. If he’s correct then instead of voting for an octogenarian in 2028 we might be bowing down to Skynet. The final stage, and the point where AGI can be said to be reached is when an AI model is capable of running an entire organization on its own without human input. OpenAI has a new partnership with the Los Alamos National Laboratory to develop AI-based bioscience research. This is more immediate in the fact they want to create safe ways to use AI in a lab setting, but will also likely help formulate plans for when AI can invent its own creations.

Mark your calendar, GPT5 release date could be the day you learn the real AGI meaning

A petition signed by over a thousand public figures and tech leaders has been published, requesting a pause in development on anything beyond GPT-4. Significant people involved in the petition include Elon Musk, Steve Wozniak, Andrew Yang, and many more. It is also worth noting that AGI is unlikely to be a binary event—one day not there and the next day there. ChatGPT appeared to many people as if it came from nowhere, but it did not. While ChatGPT (GPT3.5 and beyond) represented major advances, the trend was already in place. This website is using a security service to protect itself from online attacks.

• The correspondence with ChatGPT below shows how a chatbot can stumble—with confidence.
• The development of GPT-5 is already underway, but there’s already been a move to halt its progress.
• AMD Zen 5 is the next-generation Ryzen CPU architecture for Team Red, and its gunning for a spot among the best processors.
• When the right answer is revealed, the machine can use the difference between what it guessed and the actual word to improve.
• But to Bubeck, the system’s output seemed to do so much more than just make statistically plausible guesses.
• Holographic AGI will be an incredible step as well, with 3D capability adding an entirely new level of experience to just about everything.

In the ever-evolving landscape of artificial intelligence, ChatGPT stands out as a groundbreaking development that has captured global attention. From its impressive capabilities and recent advancements to the heated debates surrounding its ethical implications, ChatGPT continues to make headlines. Unfortunately, GPT-4 and ChatGPT are designed to resist such easy reframing. What’s more, the way humans use language relies on having a mental model of an intelligent entity on the other side of the conversation to interpret the words and ideas being expressed. We can’t help but see flickers of intelligence in something that uses language so effortlessly.

But Altman, too, positioned OpenAI’s commercial products and fundraising efforts as a means to the company’s ultimate goal. GPT-4 may have only just launched, but people are already excited about the next version of the artificial intelligence (AI) chatbot technology. You can foun additiona information about ai customer service and artificial intelligence and NLP. Now, a new claim has been made Chat GPT that GPT-5 will complete its training this year, and could bring a major AI revolution with it. LLMs like those developed by OpenAI are trained on massive datasets scraped from the Internet and licensed from media companies, enabling them to respond to user prompts in a human-like manner.

“If the pattern of words is meaning-carrying, then humans are designed to interpret them as intentional, and accommodate that,” Goodman says. After OpenAI released ChatGPT, then powered by GPT-3, last November, it stunned the world with its ability to write poetry and prose on a vast array of subjects, solve coding problems, and synthesize knowledge from the web. But awe has been coupled with shock and concern about the potential for academic fraud, misinformation, and mass unemployment—and chatgpt 5 agi fears that companies like Microsoft are rushing to develop technology that could prove dangerous. Of course, the sources in the report could be mistaken, and GPT-5 could launch later for reasons aside from testing. So, consider this a strong rumor, but this is the first time we’ve seen a potential release date for GPT-5 from a reputable source. Also, we now know that GPT-5 is reportedly complete enough to undergo testing, which means its major training run is likely complete.

However, the quality of the information provided by the model can vary depending on the training data used, and also based on the model’s tendency to confabulate information. If GPT-5 can improve generalization (its ability to perform https://chat.openai.com/ novel tasks) while also reducing what are commonly called “hallucinations” in the industry, it will likely represent a notable advancement for the firm. First things first, what does GPT mean, and what does GPT stand for in AI?

(It’s now part of ESPN.) In 2021, he created a search tool using GPT-3 that enables cricket lovers to sift through Cricinfo’s substantial database with conversational queries. It is designed to do away with the conventional text-based context window and instead converse using natural, spoken words, delivered in a lifelike manner. According to OpenAI, Advanced Voice, “offers more natural, real-time conversations, allows you to interrupt anytime, and senses and responds to your emotions.” And as for the timing of GPT-5, this is the first time we’ve heard that next level of progress, though based on the other clues OpenAI has offered, it’s not far fetched. Understanding the potential or risks of AI’s new abilities means having a clear grasp of what those abilities are—and are not. But while there’s broad agreement that ChatGPT and similar systems give computers significant new skills, researchers are only just beginning to study these behaviors and determine what’s going on behind the prompt.

AI’s future is being determined by an ideological fight between wealthy techno-optimists, zealous doomers, and multibillion-dollar companies. The fate of OpenAI might hang in the balance, but the company’s conceit—the openness it is named after—showed its limits. At least, not like other epochal companies of the internet age, such as Meta and Google. The chatbot-robot combo would not be able to achieve much independently, even with the best robots available today. A primary, limiting factor in the field of robotics is a lack of data. The internet brims with text to improve chatbots; the data available for robotics is less comprehensive.

The more confident Sutskever grew about the power of OpenAI’s technology, the more he also allied himself with the existential-risk faction within the company. For a leadership offsite this year, according to two people familiar with the event, Sutskever commissioned a wooden effigy from a local artist that was intended to represent an “unaligned” AI—that is, one that does not meet a human’s objectives. He set it on fire to symbolize OpenAI’s commitment to its founding principles. In July, OpenAI announced the creation of a so-called superalignment team with Sutskever co-leading the research. OpenAI would expand the alignment team’s research to develop more upstream AI-safety techniques with a dedicated 20 percent of the company’s existing computer chips, in preparation for the possibility of AGI arriving in this decade, the company said.

Even if researchers agreed one day on a testable definition of AGI, the race to build the world’s first animate algorithm might never have a clear winner. “I feel like it’s too easily taking a notion about humans and transferring it over to machines. There’s an assumption there when you use that word,” says Noah Smith, a professor at the University of Washington and researcher at the Allen Institute for AI.

AMD Zen 5 is the next-generation Ryzen CPU architecture for Team Red, and its gunning for a spot among the best processors. After a major showing in June, the first Ryzen 9000 and Ryzen AI 300 CPUs are already here. Last year, Shane Legg, Google DeepMind’s co-founder and chief AGI scientist, told Time Magazine that he estimates there to be a 50% chance that AGI will be developed by 2028.

A blog post from CEO Sam Altman describes AGI as anything “generally smarter than humans.” By this vague measure, it would be difficult to determine whether it is ever really achieved. That’s something Elon Musk is evidently aware of, and the controversial billionaire has made fighting AI bots a key pillar of his tenure as Twitter CEO. Yet his latest idea of restricting the reach of accounts that have not paid for a Twitter Blue membership has not gone down well, and his time in charge has been beset by divisive moves that have had limited success, to put it mildly. At the same time, bestowing an AI with that much power could have unintended consequences — ones that we simply haven’t thought of yet. It doesn’t mean the robot apocalypse is imminent, but it certainly raises a lot of questions about what the negative effects of AGI could be. That makes Chen’s claim pretty explosive, considering all the possibilities AGI might enable.

The first draft of that standard is expected to debut sometime in 2024, with an official specification put in place in early 2025. That might lead to an eventual release of early DDR6 chips in late 2025, but when those will make it into actual products remains to be seen. Currently all three commercially available versions of GPT — 3.5, 4 and 4o — are available in ChatGPT at the free tier.